Iran protests could hurt clerics but Rouhani has most to lose, say insiders

President Hassan Rouhani

DUBAI: Iranian authorities are concerned that nationwide unrest will undermine the clerical establishment and want to stamp out the protests quickly, senior regime officials say. But the person with the most to lose is President Hassan Rouhani.
While several senior officials said there was concern that prolonged unrest would damage the legitimacy and influence of the country鈥檚 religious leaders, few insiders see the unrest as an existential threat to that leadership, which has ruled since the 1979 revolution and is now controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate authority in Iran鈥檚 system of dual clerical and republican rule.
The biggest loser, they say, is likely to be Rouhani, who is much more closely tied to the country鈥檚 economic policies.
鈥淥f course, Rouhani and his government will have less power afterward, especially because his economic policy was criticized during the unrest,鈥� said political analyst Hamid Farahvashian.
鈥淗e will be a lame-duck president and Khamenei will have more power.鈥�
Much of the protesters鈥� anger has focused on what Rouhani and his government have failed to deliver: An economic boom promised as the payoff for the 2015 deal that curbed Iran鈥檚 disputed nuclear program in return for world powers lifting sanctions.
Protesters are angry that Iran鈥檚 youth unemployment rate is edging toward 30 percent, want higher wages and an end to alleged graft. They have chanted slogans against all of Iran鈥檚 leaders, including the clerical elite, and attacked police vehicles, banks and mosques as the unrest widened.
鈥淭he continuation of the protests will lead to a legitimacy crisis,鈥� said one senior official close to Rouhani, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
鈥淧eople have economic demands... of course these demands should be taken seriously... of course the establishment should listen to the people, but all these can be discussed in a calm atmosphere,鈥� the official said.
Some conservatives have pushed for a hard-line approach, even though bloodshed could fuel more protests in the largest wave of demonstrations since nationwide unrest in 2009.
鈥淪o far, security forces have not tried to prevent the demonstrations... but this will change if (Khamenei) calls for an end to the street protests and demonstrators defy his call,鈥� said one former Iranian official from the reformist camp.
Even if the unrest is quelled, the demands of tens of thousands of restless working-class youths who have taken to the streets are unlikely to dissipate.
Khamenei spoke publicly for the first time about the crisis on Tuesday, accusing Iran鈥檚 enemies of stirring unrest but saying no more. A statement on his website said he would address the nation about the events 鈥渨hen the time is right.鈥�
The protesters have little chance of toppling the clerical leaders, who appear to be retaining control of the military, police, and security forces and have no compunction about using them, according to one US official following the developments.
Rouhani, who was elected in 2013, is more exposed. He is seen as a pragmatist at odds with Iran鈥檚 hard-liners and has said in response to the protests that Iranians have a right to criticize the authorities.
But he has a fight on his hands because of growing resentment over high prices and allegations of corruption.
鈥淗is power is limited in Iran鈥檚 ruling system. Public discontent is increasing ... people are losing their faith in the establishment system,鈥� a third Iranian official said. 鈥淭he leaders are well aware of this fact and its dangerous consequences.鈥�
US officials fear the likeliest outcome of the protests is discrediting what one called Rouhani鈥檚 鈥渕oderate brand of moderation鈥� and a harsher crackdown by the clerical authorities.
鈥淚t鈥檚 an open question whether Rouhani ever intended to keep any of his promises, but he hasn鈥檛 delivered, especially on the economic front, and that means he has no popular support and is expendable to Khamenei,鈥� said a second US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
鈥淗e鈥檚 likely to be one of the casualties, though maybe not immediately.鈥�
Rouhani has blamed his predecessor and the US, Iran鈥檚 long-time adversary, for the economy鈥檚 shortcomings.
But his government has also backtracked on planned fuel price rises and promised more jobs.
Rouhani may need to spend more money to create more employment if he is to ease discontent and could risk antagonizing powerful interests if he tries to address allegations of corruption.
His vulnerability and the deep divisions in Iran鈥檚 hierarchy have fueled suspicions among some of his sympathizers that conservative rivals may have played a hand in the crisis.
鈥淚t was a coup against Rouhani and his achievements ... The aim was to harm Rouhani,鈥� said Saeed Leylaz, a political analyst close to the pro-reform movement.
But a fourth official in Tehran said the nationwide protests had united Iran鈥檚 leadership.
鈥淎t this point, it is not important whether a political faction initiated the unrest to harm the rival group,鈥� the official said. 鈥淭he unrest was hijacked by our enemies ... that is why all factions have united to protect the Islamic Republic.鈥�